MLS week 4

rolltide · Apr 8, 2011

7-4 +8.33 (staked 45.78, +18.2%)

disappointing price on Dallas tonight as I was hoping to see 2.3-2.4 but not there, at least not yet. With the past 3 meetings ending in draw and with seemingly every MLS drawing these days I can't back them at the current number. I will have at least one pick up shortly and got my eyes on a few others

rolltide · Apr 8, 2011

San Jose vs Toronto
- SJ are a decent team that have played better than their record suggests and started with 3 games againstly likely playoff teams. TFC are a bad team that have played two expansion teams and a MLS club rebuilding, so 3 teams nobody expected to make the playoffs. Their 1-1-1 record is much more deserved than SJ's 1-1-1 mark as SJ outplayed RSL for much of the night in their 1-0 home loss. SJ big issue is finding a scorer besides Wondolowski and they FINALLY had not one, but TWO, guys score besides Wondo last week. Wondo had netted 12 straight SJ goals so getting a goal each from Dawkins and Stephenson is a huge boost ahead of this match. TFC have been simply awful when travelling 3 time zones for every opponent except San Jose where they've won 2 straight but I expect a marginally entertaining game and a home win. SJ not one of my favorite teams to bet because of their lacking offense outside of Wondo but they are a veteran club that should defeat the rebuilding Toronto team playing first away match without Dwayne DeRosario. In their only other away match so far this year TFC allowed 4 goals, 16 shots, and 12 corners against an expansion club so SJ will get plenty of chances...it will simply be a matter of converting. SJ allowed just 2 SOG at home against RSL so I don't expect TFC to see many looks. I've been playing against East teams quite a bit when visiting Western Conference squads in the past year and, while they're gotten some draws in 2011, East teams have won just once in 9 western trips so far this year (Sporting KC 3-2 at Chivas USA).

San Jose 4.5u -115

rolltide · Apr 9, 2011

Houston Dynamo vs Vancouver
- very small, speculative bet on Dynamo to win at home on Sunday. IMO they've played perhaps the worst football in MLS this year and are simply lucky to have 2 points. After their miracle draw in Seattle they got another one last week despite allowing 22 shots, 28 crosses, and 16 shots from inside their own 18 yard box. So this bet is certainly against Vancouver, not for Houston. Vancouver impressive so far in MLS but will be really shorthanded on Sunday. Their top striker, Hassli, is suspended and two starting defenders are out. Captain Dunfield is missing in MF and his replacement, Thorrington, is likely out due to leg injury while both Nanchoff and Salinas missing due to injury as well. Basically they're using another new central defense pairing, two new central MF, and replacing their only real legitimite striking threat. I also like playing against teams that had a midweek match and Vancouver had a tough one against NE, playing with 9 men while under pressure in 2H. Houston missing striker Ching who will miss a lot of matches this year because he's getting too old to stay fit, and they're a fairly inept offensive team anyway. They used reserves in midweek loss to KC in the Open Cup so will be fresh for the match. I expect Davis to play though not 100% so they'll use pretty much same lineup as last week. Will not be the most entertaining match but I'll call a narrow home win and if Davis isn't fit I'll add a small under play as well.

Houston 1.75u -114

Vancouverfan · Apr 9, 2011

I've watched all Whitecaps games this season and been thoroughly entertained with them so far. Although not a playoff team, I think they are going to end up exceeding their pre-season expectations by the time this season is over. With exception of the opening season victory over TFC, it's unfortunate and somewhat frustrating this team missing 4-5 regular starters each game. Rochat on their backline has been an absolute godsend in the absence of Demerit, in my opinion their MVP so far and is definitely world class. Nothing official yet, but its expected Demerit will be back for tomorrow's game which should be a huge upgrade over his backup that was playing.

Its also expected midfielder Davide Chiumiento will play more minutes tomorrow after recovering from a hamstring injury. He is far and away their best playmaker and makes a massive difference when he's out there. 18 year old starting midfielder Russell Teibert is back from the Canadian U 20 squad as well, along with Salgado from the U.S. U 20 team, hope to see Salgado in as a 2nd half sub, look forward to watching him develop! You are correct though, they lose 2 starters in midfielders Dunfield (injury) and Koffie (called up to Ghana Under 20 team), so its still a bit of a revolving door. Boy has Hassli ever been a headcase so far! He's proven he can score when he gets his rare chance of playing thanks to his red cards, hopefully they can get him settled soon. He and Chiumiento look like they had some great chemistry that first game. Goodluck on your bets!

rolltide · Apr 9, 2011

another small add...

Philadephia vs RBNY
- Philly have played at home 16 times since entering the league and scored in 15 of them, conceding in 13 including a 2-1 against the Red Bulls last year. Match on ESPN2 and typically I won't take an over on an ESPN game because, for whatever reason, they always seem to end with 1 goal. Anyway, from what I saw after DeRosario was inserted in the 2nd half last week the Red Bulls are the most dangerous offense in MLS. With him pushing up the middle, Lindpere to his left, Richards to the right, and Henry/Agudelo ahead of him they will put every MLS defense under a lot of pressure. They took over 20 shots, 16 in the Houston penalty area, but missed high, left, and off the post for a 1-1 draw. Philly were offensively inept in both the Vancouver game (1-0 win) and LA game (1-0 loss) not even registering a shot in LA but the Red Bulls will give them some looks. I think both teams will score and just need one of them to grab a second...

PHI/RBNY over 2 goals 1.5u -140

rolltide · Apr 10, 2011

see if houston can save some money this weekend. lineup is out and davis is in with bruin/weaver up front

odds on the move and I'm adding a unit

Houston 1u -105